Nuclear Recommendations

The Current US foreign policy views the Pakistani Nuclear arsenal as a direct threat to their national security. An insight into this thought can be seen in the book ‘Seven Deadly Scenarios’ by Andrew Krepinevich who is the president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assesments. The book states that the most likely and eminent deadly scenario is the collapse of Pakistan wherein radical Islamists will take over the Pakistani nuclear weapons. The second ‘deadly scenario’ mentioned in the book is that the nuclear weapons will be smuggled onto US soil and will be against its citizens. This book is clear suggestion of how seriously Pakistani nuclear weapons are taken by the worlds biggest superpower. Their pressure on the governments of Pakistan is expected to increase with time. It is likely to culminate in economic and political sanctions over time. Signing a treaty such as FMCT can prevent such damage and instead use this as an opportunity to receive development related aid.

The treaty is supported and signed by over 61 countries with notables like Australia, Canada and Germany. It has the backing of several UN general assembly resolutions and is a widely popular. This treaty has also gained prominence after President Obama’s speech in Prague over cutting nuclear weapons. Signing this at this moment will illuminate Pakistan as a responsible participant of the international community. Signing the treaty can be used to leverage more aid and co-operation from the international community for development of civilian nuclear power plants with in the country.

It is estimated that Pakistan has almost as many nuclear weapons as India if not more. The stock pile can be estimated to be approx 100 nuclear weapons and slightly more than Indian stockpiles. These stocks are enough to last several war possibilities with India and other states therefore further production is not required. Increasing stocks result in increased security threats from terrorist elements. India also has more than necessary number of nuclear warheads to wage a war against Pakistan. An increase in their nuclear stockpile will not cause any further destruction than is already possible. Both countries posses enough nuclear weapons to completely wipe out the living population from the sub-continent. The treaty should be signed and Pakistan should try to secure a missile defense system for itself in return.

Pakistan has previously been importing uranium for its nuclear weapons. Mining was started in Baghalchur for uranium where 10 metric tons of ‘yellow cake’ uranium was extracted and mining was closed down in 1998. Tumman Leghari mines were opened in Southern Punjab but not much uranium was extracted. Further exploration is being conducted in Dera Ghazi Khan to look for uranium reserves. Pakistan has no plutonium mines and uranium is the only element being enriched for nuclear power and weapons. The Khushab reactor and the KANUPP reactor both require 10 and 17 metric tons of uranium respectively anually for continued production of weapon grade uranium. It is therefore clear that the country has no uranium reserves to continue the production of nuclear weapons. In this light signing a cut-off treaty will make little practical difference.

The plutonium reactors gifted to Pakistan from China will start producing nuclear grade plutonium after several decades and will involve heavy economic burdens. The country currently needs to spend its budget on development and growth as apposed to research on nuclear weapons. Becoming a signatory to this treaty will re-enforce the Pakistani image of a peaceful nation committed to its development and growth.

In 1998 Pakistan willingly cut back on its nuclear production. It is now a member of CTBT. The CTBT already places more restrictions than the FMCT. Pakistan is under immense international pressure to sign the FMCT and the same can be signed by negotiating deals for buying nuclear material for civilian use from the international community.

What matters in modern warfare is not only the nuclear warhead but also the carrying vehicles. Pakistan has produced missiles considerably better than their Indian counterpart but the use of jets and ships is lacking. Pakistan should use this treaty to negotiate deals for its air force and navy and secure China’s assistance in improving its missile technology.